بررسی تأثیر بهره وری و نرخ بیکاری بر دستمزد در اقتصاد ایران بین سال های 1395-1350، با به کارگیری رهیافت هم جمعی ARDL

نوع مقاله: علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشگاه بین المللی آتاترک،ارزروم،ترکیه

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه بین المللی آتاترک،ارزروم،ترکیه

چکیده

بررسی ارتباط دستمزد با متغیرهای کلان بهره‌وری و بیکاری در اقتصاد ایران به‌عنوان ارتباط دهنده اقتصاد اشتغال از اهمیت ویژه‌ای برخوردار است. این مطالعه باهدف برآورد الگوی پویا برای بررسی تأثیر متغیرهای بهره‌وری و بیکاری به همراه آموزش و تورم بر نرخ دستمزد در ایران طی سال های 1395-1350 انجام‌شده است. برای این منظور از الگوی پویای ARDL برای برآورد، از روشهای کوتامدت، بلندمدت همچنین مدل تصحیح خطا استفاده ‌شده است. نتایج برآورد مدل تحقیق دلالت بر وجود یک رابطه کوتاه مدت و بلندمدت بین متغیرهای تحقیق داشته و متغیرهای نرخ تورم، بهره‌وری و آموزش دارای تأثیر مثبت و معنی‌داری هستند؛ بنابراین می­توان بیان کرد که افزایش آموزش به همراه افزایش بهره‌وری موجب افزایش دستمزد نیروی کار خواهد شد ولی بیکاری تأثیر منفی و کاهنده بر میزان دستمزد نیروی کار دارد. همچنین مدل تصحیح خطا برای بررسی ارتباط کوتاه­مدت با بلندمدت به کار رفته است که نتایج نشان داد ضریب جمله تصحیح خطا برابر با 30/0- می باشد. همچنین  تفاضل جاری متغیرهای بهره‌وری نیروی کار  و تورم  در کوتاه مدت تأثیر مثبت و معنی­دار بر تفاضل جاری نرخ دستمزد داشته است در حالی که تفاضل جاری متغیر آموزش دارای تأثیرگذاری معنی­دار بر نرخ دستمزد ندارند. همچنین تفاضل جاری نرخ بیکاری نیز تأثیر منفی و معنی دار در کوتاه مدت بر روی تفاضل جاری نرخ دستمزد دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Productivity and Unemployment Rate on Wages in the Economy of Iran from 1971 to 2016: The ARDL Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • samad karrari 1
  • Mustafa Ersungur 2
1 Ph.D. Student, Department of Economics, Ataturk University, Erzurum, Turkey
2 Assistant professor, Department of Economics, Ataturk University, Erzurum, Turkey
چکیده [English]

The study of the relationship between wage and macro variables of productivity and unemployment, as the link in employment economy, is of particular importance in the economy of Iran. The present study was conducted with the aim of offering a dynamic pattern for examining the effects of productivity, unemployment, training, and inflation on wage rate between 1971 and 2016. To this end, the ARDL Dynamic Model, along with short-term and long-term methods and error correction model, was employed. The results of estimating the research model indicated both short-term and long-term relationships among the research variables. Moreover, inflation rate, productivity and training were found to be positively and significantly correlated in such a way that an increase in training and productivity was found to promote a parallel raise the work force rage. However, unemployment was found to have a negative effect on the rate of workforce wage. Besides, the obtained results of the error correction model used to analyze short-term and long-term relationship indicated an error correction coefficient of-0.30. In addition, the current difference of wage rate in the short run was found to be significantly affected by the current difference between productivity of the workforce and the inflation rate but not by the current difference of training. Finally, the current difference of wage rate was found to be negatively and significantly affected in the short run by the current difference of unemployment rate.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • ARDL Model
  • Productivity
  • Unemployment
  • Wage

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