تلفیق مدل سازی معادله ساختاری و شبکه باور بیزین در تحلیل ابعاد ریسک بر اهداف پروژه‌های عمرانی شهرداری اصفهان

نوع مقاله : علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه مدیریت دولتی، واحد دهاقان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، دهاقان، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه صنعتی مالک اشتر، اصفهان، ایران.

3 استادیار گروه مدیریت دولتی، واحد دهاقان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، دهاقان، ایران

4 استادیار گروه مدیریت مالی، دانشکده صنایع و مدیریت، دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود، شاهرود، ایران

چکیده

افزایش جمعیت و به‌تبع آن گسترش شهرنشینی موجب افزایش تعداد پروژه‌های عمرانی در کلان‌شهرها شده است. اجرا و مدیریت پروژه‌های مختلف ازجمله پروژه‌های عمرانی، دارای موارد مبهم و ناشناخته فراوانی است و با توجه به ویژگی‌های خاص هر پروژه و شرایطی که در شهرداری‌ها می‌باشد ریسک پروژه بر اهداف پروژه تأثیر می‌گذارد. هدف این پژوهش، بررسی تحلیلی تأثیر مؤلفه‌های ساختار شکست ریسک بر اهداف پروژه‌های عمرانی شهرداری شامل رضایت شهروندان، هزینه، زمان، کیفیت، محدوده و ایمنی با استفاده از شبکه باور بیزین است. در این پژوهش کاربردی، شیوه گردآوری داده‌ها-توصیفی پیمایشی از نوع همبستگی و جامعه آماری بر اساس نمونه‌گیری هدفمند مطابق با جامعهٔ متخصص در شهرداری اصفهان مرتبط با موضوع 45 مدیر، معاون، مسؤول مرتبط و متخصص انتخاب شدند. زمان پژوهش برای شناسایی ریسک پروژه‌ها سال 1395 تا پایان 1397 را در بر می­گیرد، ابزار مورداستفاده در پژوهش پرسشنامه است که اطلاعات جمع‌آوری‌شده با استفاده از تدوین ساختار شکست ریسک پروژه‌ها جهت دسته‌بندی و شناسایی ریسک‌ها و ماتریس پذیرش ریسک مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. جهت اعتبار سنجی از مدل‌سازی معادله ساختاری به روش حداقل مربعات جزئی و در خصوص ارزیابی تأثیر هم‌زمان ابعاد ریسک بر اهداف پروژه‌ها از مدل‌سازی احتمالی علت و اثر بر مبنای الگوی باور بیزین صورت پذیرفته است. تحلیل داده‌های این پژوهش نشان داد که مؤلفه‌های ریسک پروژه‌ها، تأثیر مثبتی روی اهداف پروژه‌ها دارد. نوآوری و ویژگی این پژوهش تلفیق مدل‌سازی معادلات ساختاری با شبکه باور بیزین و استفاده از تکنیک تجزیه‌وتحلیل حالات خطا و آثار ریسک در ساختار شکست ریسک می‌باشد که در فرآیند مدیریت ریسک منجر به رفع عدم اطمینان بین روابط ابعاد ریسک و دقیق سازی اولویت‌بندی و تحلیل ابعاد ریسک‌ها شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Risk Dimensions on the Objectives of Construction Projects in Isfahan Municipality: An Integrated SEM and BBN Analysis

نویسندگان [English]

  • Amir Hossein Nadali Jelokhani 1
  • Mehdi Karbassian 2
  • Sayyed Rasool Agha Davood 3
  • Abdul Majid Abdul Baghi 4
1 PhD Candidate, Department of management, Dehaghan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Dehaghan, Iran .Associate Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering, Malek Ashtar University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering, Malek Ashtar University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Public Administration, Dehaghan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Dehaghan, Iran
4 Assistant Professor, Department of Financial Management, Faculty of Industry and Management, Shahroud University of Technology, Shahroud, Iran
چکیده [English]

Population growth and the subsequent surge in urbanization has drastically increased the number of construction projects in metropolitan cities implementation and management of which may involve numerous ambiguous and unknown issues or risks that can impact project objectives depending on the specific project characteristics and municipal conditions. Thus, the purpose of the current applied descriptive correlational survey was to examine the extent to which components of risk failure structure can impact the goals of municipal construction projects including citizen satisfaction, cost, time, quality, range and safety using Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). The purposeful research sample comprised 45 managers, deputies, relevant officials and experts in Isfahan municipality who were consulted to identify the project risk dimensions during 2016 and 2018. A questionnaire was employed to collect the research data which were further analyzed using the project risk structure breakdown to classify and identify risks and matrices. Partial Least Squares Method of Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) was employed to validate the questionnaire data.  The simultaneous impact of risk dimensions on project goals was investigated using probable cause and effect modeling based on Bayesian Belief Model. The findings verified the significant positive impact of project risk components on the project objectives. The innovative characteristic of the current study was the integration of SEM and Bayesian BBN and application of error state analysis technique and risk effects in risk failure structure which can establish certainty concerning the analysis of risk dimensions and their relationship with precision of priorities in risk management process.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • BBN
  • Municipal Construction Projects
  • Project Risk Management
  • RBS
  • Risk analysis
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